SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13379 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13380 79 86 27 35 6 6 83 31 6
13384 - 22 - 2 - 0 22 2 0
13386 74 76 6 15 6 2 75 11 4
13387 13 15 1 2 0 0 14 1 0
13388 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13389 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13390 12 27 0 3 0 0 20 1 0
13391 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13392 - 57 - 6 - 0 57 6 0
13393 - 8 - 1 - 0 8 1 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)