SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13519 44 55 0 4 0 0 50 2 0
13521 95 23 39 7 0 0 59 23 0
13524 9 5 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
13526 59 57 0 6 0 0 58 3 0
13528 49 57 5 6 0 0 53 6 0
13529 - 57 - 5 - 0 57 5 0
13530 4 14 0 1 0 0 9 0 0
13531 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13532 - 9 - 0 - 0 9 0 0
13533 - 9 - 0 - 0 9 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)