![](/data/2024/01/09/fl_forecast/fl_forecast_mcstat_20240110_0000.png)
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA | C+ | M+ | X+ | Mean ? | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCEVOL ? | MCSTAT ? | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
13536 | 45 | 42 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 5 | 0 |
13537 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
13538 | 52 | 55 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
13539 | 36 | 57 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
13540 | 63 | 22 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 15 | 0 |
13541 | 49 | 57 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 6 | 0 |
13542 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
13543 | 53 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 0 |
13544 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
13545 | - | 15 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
13546 | - | 22 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 22 | 2 | 0 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)