SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13576 95 95 56 56 9 9 95 56 9
13581 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13582 64 64 13 11 1 1 64 12 1
13583 49 35 28 3 0 0 42 16 0
13584 3 10 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
13585 11 9 3 0 0 0 10 2 0
13586 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13587 - 14 - 1 - 0 14 1 0
13588 - 9 - 0 - 0 9 0 0
13589 - 31 - 0 - 0 31 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)