SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13636 4 5 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
13637 2 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
13638 33 9 0 0 0 0 21 0 0
13639 82 64 11 11 2 1 73 11 2
13643 12 14 0 1 0 0 13 1 0
13644 22 33 1 4 0 0 28 2 0
13645 68 86 6 35 0 6 77 21 3
13646 11 55 0 4 0 0 33 2 0
13647 76 77 10 18 0 1 77 14 1
13649 - 15 - 2 - 0 15 2 0
13650 52 55 0 4 0 0 54 2 0
13652 0 33 0 4 0 0 17 2 0
13653 4 5 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
13654 4 14 0 1 0 0 9 0 0
13655 12 14 0 1 0 0 13 1 0
13656 3 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
13657 - 9 - 0 - 0 9 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)