SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13638 0 55 0 4 0 0 28 2 0
13639 45 42 2 8 0 0 44 5 0
13643 - 86 - 17 - 3 86 17 3
13644 18 8 0 1 0 0 13 0 0
13645 87 86 37 35 9 6 87 36 8
13646 49 57 5 6 0 0 53 6 0
13647 69 57 14 6 0 0 63 10 0
13648 0 57 0 6 0 0 29 3 0
13650 78 9 0 0 0 0 43 0 0
13652 32 15 2 2 0 0 23 2 0
13653 - 5 - 0 - 0 5 0 0
13654 72 86 13 17 0 3 79 15 1
13655 34 35 0 3 0 0 34 2 0
13656 12 14 0 1 0 0 13 1 0
13657 4 14 0 1 0 0 9 0 0
13658 - 9 - 0 - 0 9 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)