Flare Probabilities (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA | McIntosh Evol. ? | McIntosh ? | Mean ? | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C+ | M+ | X+ | C+ | M+ | X+ | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
13639 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13643 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13644 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13647 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13648 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13658 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13660 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13661 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13663 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 |
13664 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 | 0.95 | 0.56 | 0.09 |
13665 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13666 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
13667 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
13668 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
13669 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
13670 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT: Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)