Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13719 13 15 10 1 2 0 0 0 0 13 1 0
13720 11 9 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 10 2 0
13721 7 15 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
13722 4 8 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
13723 8 9 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 9 0 0
13724 4 8 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
13727 11 22 25 1 2 5 0 0 0 19 3 0
13728 27 33 25 3 4 5 0 0 0 28 4 0
13729 35 64 70 5 11 20 0 1 5 56 12 2
13730 12 5 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 0
13731 4 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
13732 7 22 25 1 2 5 0 0 0 18 3 0
13733 17 33 20 2 4 5 0 0 0 23 4 0
13734 17 33 55 2 4 5 0 0 0 35 4 0
13735 4 8 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 8 0 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)