SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? MCEVOL MCSTAT MCEVOL MCSTAT C+ M+ X+
13738 95 95 56 56 9 9 95 56 9
13743 49 57 5 6 0 0 53 6 0
13744 32 15 2 2 0 0 23 2 0
13745 0 15 0 2 0 0 8 1 0
13747 4 8 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
13748 2 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
13749 11 22 1 2 0 0 17 2 0
13750 11 22 1 2 0 0 17 2 0
13751 81 44 0 4 0 0 62 2 0
13752 7 8 0 1 0 0 7 1 0
13753 - 33 - 4 - 0 33 4 0
13754 - 14 - 1 - 0 14 1 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)