SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13742 12 5 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 8 2 0
13743 11 9 - 3 0 - 0 0 - 10 2 0
13744 0 14 15 0 1 1 0 0 1 10 1 0
13745 30 14 15 3 1 1 0 0 1 20 2 0
13747 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13748 9 5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 7 0 0
13750 12 5 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 8 2 0
13751 92 92 85 32 35 35 3 5 10 90 34 6
13752 4 10 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 6 0 0
13753 19 22 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 21 2 0
13754 30 14 10 3 1 1 0 0 1 18 2 0
13755 19 22 15 1 2 1 0 0 1 19 1 0
13756 7 15 10 0 2 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13757 7 15 20 0 2 5 0 0 1 14 2 0
13758 26 9 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 18 1 0
13759 27 33 30 3 4 5 0 0 1 30 4 0
13760 12 5 10 4 0 1 0 0 1 9 2 0
13761 - 57 50 - 6 10 - 0 1 54 8 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)