Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13751 86 86 50 25 17 15 6 3 1 74 19 3
13755 17 14 15 1 1 1 0 0 1 15 1 0
13756 4 8 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 1 0
13757 19 22 5 1 2 1 0 0 1 15 1 0
13759 28 15 35 5 2 10 0 0 1 26 6 0
13760 4 5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 4 0 0
13761 74 73 60 21 15 20 3 4 5 69 19 4
13762 20 64 55 4 11 20 0 1 5 46 12 2
13763 - 8 20 - 1 5 - 0 1 14 3 1
13764 - 8 10 - 1 1 - 0 1 9 1 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)