Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13762 84 86 50 17 17 10 0 3 5 73 14 3
13763 10 8 5 1 1 1 0 0 1 8 1 0
13764 11 27 35 0 3 5 0 0 1 25 3 0
13765 87 86 70 37 35 25 9 6 5 81 33 7
13766 64 64 65 13 11 15 1 1 5 64 13 2
13767 48 22 50 0 2 10 0 0 1 40 4 0
13768 65 86 85 10 17 45 0 3 10 78 24 4
13769 10 8 5 1 1 1 0 0 1 8 1 0
13770 0 39 45 0 4 10 0 0 1 28 5 0
13771 4 5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 4 0 0
13772 - 57 55 - 6 35 - 0 5 56 21 3
13773 - 14 35 - 1 5 - 0 1 25 3 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)