![](/data/2024/08/07/fl_forecast/fl_forecast_mcstat_20240808_0000.png)
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA | C+ | M+ | X+ | Mean ? | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCEVOL ? | MCSTAT ? | SWPC ? | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
13769 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
13772 | 67 | 58 | 35 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 53 | 10 | 4 |
13774 | 92 | 92 | 85 | 32 | 35 | 35 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 90 | 34 | 6 |
13775 | 13 | 15 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 2 | 0 |
13777 | 75 | 76 | 85 | 15 | 15 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 78 | 22 | 4 |
13779 | 12 | 5 | - | 4 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | - | 8 | 2 | 0 |
13780 | 95 | 95 | 90 | 56 | 56 | 50 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 93 | 54 | 11 |
13781 | 31 | 27 | 70 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 43 | 10 | 2 |
13782 | - | 42 | 60 | - | 8 | 20 | - | 0 | 5 | 51 | 14 | 3 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)