Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13790 87 86 60 37 35 20 9 6 5 78 31 7
13792 12 19 15 0 1 1 0 0 1 15 1 0
13794 19 22 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 14 1 0
13796 22 73 60 0 15 15 0 4 5 52 10 3
13798 4 8 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 1 0
13799 74 76 60 6 15 20 6 2 5 70 14 5
13800 75 76 60 15 15 15 0 2 5 70 15 2
13801 16 27 20 4 3 5 0 0 1 21 4 0
13802 8 9 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 1 0
13803 - 33 25 - 4 5 - 0 1 29 4 1
13804 - 8 5 - 1 1 - 0 1 7 1 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)