Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13803 4 5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 4 0 0
13806 91 64 70 34 11 30 0 1 5 75 25 2
13807 79 92 60 16 35 20 0 5 5 77 24 3
13808 13 15 15 1 2 1 0 0 1 14 1 0
13810 9 5 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 7 0 0
13811 11 22 60 1 2 15 0 0 5 31 6 2
13813 28 92 80 28 35 30 0 5 5 67 31 3

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)