Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13806 39 15 45 12 2 10 0 0 1 33 8 0
13808 19 22 10 1 2 1 0 0 1 17 1 0
13811 0 27 55 0 3 15 0 0 1 27 6 0
13813 - 59 35 - 4 5 - 0 1 47 5 0
13814 16 27 40 4 3 10 0 0 1 28 6 0
13815 33 15 10 0 2 1 0 0 1 19 1 0
13816 6 14 25 0 1 5 0 0 1 15 2 0
13818 30 14 1 3 1 1 0 0 1 15 2 0
13819 28 23 25 0 7 5 0 0 1 25 4 0
13820 - 8 10 - 1 1 - 0 1 9 1 1
13821 - 15 25 - 2 5 - 0 1 20 3 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)