Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
| NOAA | C+ | M+ | X+ | Mean ? | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCEVOL ? | MCSTAT ? | SWPC ? | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
| 13806 | 39 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 5 |
| 13811 | 18 | 44 | 55 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 6 | 0 |
| 13813 | 55 | 44 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 0 |
| 13814 | 0 | 57 | 75 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 44 | 13 | 3 |
| 13815 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| 13816 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 0 |
| 13818 | 11 | 9 | - | 3 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | - | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 13819 | - | 31 | 5 | - | 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 13820 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 13821 | 16 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
| 13822 | - | 33 | 50 | - | 4 | 20 | - | 0 | 5 | 42 | 12 | 3 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)