SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13827 7 15 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
13828 15 33 15 3 4 0 0 0 0 21 2 0
13831 12 14 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
13833 0 15 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 8 1 0
13834 6 44 15 0 4 1 0 0 0 22 2 0
13835 33 57 50 1 6 10 0 0 0 47 6 0
13836 49 57 70 5 6 30 0 0 10 59 14 4
13837 6 14 10 0 1 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
13838 - 14 5 - 1 0 - 0 0 10 0 0
13839 - 8 75 - 1 25 - 0 5 42 13 3

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)