Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13839 4 8 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 8 1 0
13841 28 9 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 14 0 0
13842 70 76 70 15 15 30 1 2 15 72 20 6
13844 78 54 70 0 16 20 0 2 5 67 12 2
13848 74 73 65 21 15 25 3 4 5 71 20 4
13849 74 73 65 21 15 25 3 4 5 71 20 4
13850 48 22 20 0 2 5 0 0 1 30 2 0
13851 - 5 5 - 0 1 - 0 1 5 1 0
13852 - 39 40 - 4 15 - 0 5 39 9 2

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)