Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
| NOAA | C+ | M+ | X+ | Mean ? | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCEVOL ? | MCSTAT ? | SWPC ? | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | MCEVOL | MCSTAT | SWPC | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
| 13868 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 13869 | 92 | 86 | 60 | 52 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 79 | 36 | 6 |
| 13872 | 40 | 54 | 15 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 1 |
| 13873 | 7 | 22 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| 13874 | 64 | 64 | 50 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 13 | 1 |
| 13875 | 0 | 57 | 50 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 7 | 0 |
| 13876 | 50 | 73 | 70 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 64 | 24 | 8 |
| 13877 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 13878 | 70 | 76 | 80 | 15 | 15 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 75 | 28 | 9 |
| 13879 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| 13880 | - | 5 | 10 | - | 0 | 1 | - | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)