SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13868 4 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
13869 82 64 65 11 11 35 2 1 10 70 19 4
13871 42 33 45 0 4 15 0 0 1 40 6 0
13872 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13873 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13874 34 42 0 6 8 0 0 0 0 25 5 0
13875 42 44 45 5 4 15 0 0 1 44 8 0
13876 27 33 40 3 4 10 0 0 1 33 6 0
13878 67 58 50 10 10 20 5 2 5 58 13 4
13879 12 19 15 0 1 1 0 0 1 15 1 0
13880 2 9 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 6 0 0
13881 63 33 60 7 4 25 0 0 5 52 12 2
13882 - 9 - - 0 - - 0 - 9 0 0
13883 - 22 60 - 2 25 - 0 5 41 14 2
13884 - 8 20 - 1 1 - 0 1 14 1 1

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)