SolarMonitor Alpha
Today
Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13869 42 44 - 5 4 - 0 0 - 43 4 0
13872 39 57 - 0 6 - 0 0 - 48 3 0
13873 0 10 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 5 0 0
13878 33 64 - 0 11 - 0 1 - 48 6 1
13879 12 19 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 15 1 0
13881 63 33 - 7 4 - 0 0 - 48 5 0
13883 75 76 - 15 15 - 0 2 - 75 15 1
13884 13 15 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 14 1 0
13885 4 22 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 13 0 0
13886 16 42 - 3 8 - 0 0 - 29 6 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)