Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13959 0 15 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
13961 86 76 65 42 15 20 8 2 5 76 26 5
13962 7 15 10 0 1 1 0 0 1 11 1 0
13965 28 15 20 4 1 5 0 0 1 21 3 0
13967 0 14 15 0 1 1 0 0 1 10 1 0
13969 0 22 20 0 1 5 0 0 1 14 2 0
13971 33 57 65 1 6 20 0 0 5 52 9 2
13972 22 33 30 1 4 5 0 0 1 29 3 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)