Flare Probabilities (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
| NOAA | McIntosh Evol. ? | McIntosh ? | Mean ? | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C+ | M+ | X+ | C+ | M+ | X+ | C+ | M+ | X+ | |
| 13628 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13639 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| 13643 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13644 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 13646 | 0.41 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 13647 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13648 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13650 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13651 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13652 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| 13653 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13654 | 0.64 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.64 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 0.64 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| 13655 | 0.26 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| 13656 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13657 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13658 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 13659 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).
MCSTAT: Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:
[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41
[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)