Flare Probabilities (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA McIntosh Evol. ? McIntosh ? Mean ?
C+ M+ X+ C+ M+ X+ C+ M+ X+
13654 - - - - - - - - -
13655 - - - - - - - - -
13667 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.00
13669 - - - - - - - - -
13670 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.33 0.04 0.00 0.30 0.04 0.00
13671 0.13 0.03 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.00 0.13 0.02 0.00
13672 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.14 0.01 0.00
13673 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00
13674 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.12 0.02 0.00
13675 0.49 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.01 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00
13676 0.39 0.12 0.00 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.27 0.07 0.00
13677 - - - - - - - - -
13678 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00
13679 0.31 0.03 0.00 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.29 0.03 0.00
13680 0.27 0.03 0.00 0.33 0.04 0.00 0.30 0.04 0.00
13681 0.04 0.00 0.00 - - - 0.04 0.00 0.00
13682 - - - 0.33 0.04 0.00 0.33 0.04 0.00

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT: Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL: Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)