Flare Probabilities [%] (00:00 UTC +24H) ?
NOAA C+ M+ X+ Mean ?
MCEVOL ? MCSTAT ? SWPC ? MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC MCEVOL MCSTAT SWPC C+ M+ X+
13863 34 57 40 13 6 10 0 0 1 44 10 0
13865 5 8 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 7 0 0
13866 8 9 5 0 0 1 0 0 1 7 1 0
13868 4 8 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 6 1 0
13869 74 76 60 6 15 20 6 2 5 70 14 5
13870 - 22 25 - 2 5 - 0 1 24 4 0
13872 74 73 75 21 15 20 3 4 10 74 19 5
13873 49 57 45 5 6 10 0 0 1 50 7 1
13874 24 22 50 0 2 15 0 0 1 32 6 0
13875 14 22 25 1 2 5 0 0 1 20 3 0
13876 22 57 40 0 6 5 0 0 1 40 4 0

SolarMonitor's flare prediction system's probabilities are calculated using the NOAA Space Weather Predicion Centre's McIntosh classifications. There are two methods, MCSTAT and MCEVOL, that use sunspot-group McIntosh classifications and Poisson statistics to calculate flaring probabilities valid for a 24-hr period starting at 00:00 UTC. The flaring probabilities are calculated using historical data from solar cycles 23 and 24 (1996-2019).

MCSTAT (McIntosh Statistics): Uses the point-in-time McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method [1] and forecast verification testing [2] can be found in the following papers:

[1] Gallagher, P. T., Moon, Y.-J., Wang, H., Solar Physics, 209, 171, (2002)
[2] Bloomfield et al., 2012, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, L41

MCEVOL (McIntosh Evolution): Uses a combination of previous and current McIntosh classification to calculate Poisson flaring probabilities. Details about the method and flaring rate statistics can be found in the following:

[1] McCloskey, A.E., Gallagher, P.T. & Bloomfield, D.S., Solar Physics, 291, 1711, (2016)